last i looked at the trade deficit, we were, again, lagging and uke sking popped water. there's arising deficit stripping our gdp. >>nd right now europe is in a relative deep recession. we're still above water. lou: you jumped all over the punch line because you talk about things not making sense. folks, this is not making sense. i'm delighted because people have wealth left in the equities market, the bond market. w long will that be the case if we go over the cliff? >> won't be the case for long if we have a recession followed by a typical bear market. lou: how long to get to recession -- >> we can get there pretty quick. in fact, some of the down downdrafts are starting to form. we saw those in the q3 gdp numbers were sinking into @%ntraction. lou: 2.7 -- >> employment reports gnar november and december, not surprised if gains in private sector payrolls are well over 100,000 new jobs. lou: that would not be good. baseline at least, i think, for passable is 125. what's your judgment? >> about the same, okay, that's a c-minus grade, get a "c" if we hit 150. lou: might s